Emerging market – COVID continue to plague economic recovery | Harris Fraser
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23 October, 2020
Emerging market – COVID continue to plague economic recovery

The COVID epidemic continued to plague emerging markets, with notable flare-ups in Southeast Asia, markets responded with a few rather sharp selloff sessions, in response to countries opting for lockdown measures once again. Over the month of September, MSCI Emerging Markets Index lost 1.77%; while the COVID stricken regions fared far worse,the FTSE ASEAN 40 index in particular shed 7.08% over the same period.

Disregarding the messy situation arising from the COVID in numerous states, economic fundamentals in various regions are still picking up, with PMIs in large EM countries like India finally hitting higher expansionary levels since the start of the outbreak, cases in various Latin American countries are also seemingly plateauing, outlining a gradual recovery in their local economies.

Yet, we remain largely cautious on EM equity investments, as the Q4 markets still carries quite a significant level of risk, notably in form of US elections. Whether Biden or Trump gets in office, the foreign policy landscape is still very much uncertain, investing in EM before the policy direction is clear would increase unwanted risk in the investment portfolio, and we would be keen to avoid that. Hence, before the US elections are cleared, we would continue to hold a neutral view on EM markets.

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