The economic data of Eurozone remains poor, Markit Eurozone manufacturing PMI worsened to 45.7 in September, staying in the contraction zone for 8 consecutive months. The leading indicator of Eurozone economy, Economic Sentiment Indicator in Eurozone, worsened by 1.4 to 101.7 in September, continuing the downtrend from late 2017. Growth stays sluggish and shows poor signs of improvement, domestic demand is expected to be limited reflecting the continued stagnant economy in the Eurozone.

As for the never-ending Brexit matters, UK prime minister Boris Johnson claimed he has prepared a plan to resolve the “Irish Backstop”, though sources say the EU authorities are going to reject the proposal as it does not actually solve the issue. With the deadline for Brexit closing in, although the Benn Act is in place to force Johnson to request for an extension from the EU in the case of a “No-deal” Brexit, we are still not yet certain how the events will unfold. We have no idea if Johnson will be able to strike a deal with the EU, will he try to push for a hard Brexit, or if there will be a no-confidence vote alongside a caretaker government to delay the Brexit deadline. With all the uncertainties, we suggest investors to stay vigilant and prepare for all possibilities.

Moving on to the monetary policy, while the ECB’s rate cut of 0.1% from -0.4% to -0.5% was widely anticipated and mostly priced in over the month, the restart of asset purchase was a pleasant surprise, with the total amounting to EUR 20 billion per month starting from November. The central bank also introduced a tiered deposit rate to help out European banks. That said, while additional liquidity could provide support to the market, geopolitical factors and the sluggish growth in the Eurozone would likely continue to drag the market down in the last quarter of the year.

Economic figures continue to show warning signs in the US economy, as Markit and ISM PMI figures continue their downtrend in September. ISM manufacturing PMI missed expectations and remained in the contraction zone at a low of 47.8, which is the second contraction in a row, and the lowest point since July 2009. ISM non-manufacturing was 52.6, which missed the expected figure of 55, and marks the continuing downtrend for non-manufacturing figures. This is important as the US economy is dominated by the service industry. The weakening consumer confidence figures in September, coming in at 125.1 which missed the market consensus by 9 points, further shows a possible faltering economy.

As for the latest trade war development, September has been a relatively calm month as both sides are waiting for trade talks to recommence. Although Chinese trade parties have cancelled planned US farm visits earlier in September, causing a brief panic as the markets were concerned over the strained relations. Still, the scheduled trade talk in mid-October will continue as planned, we might see a positive but limited rally early in October. Overall, we expect limited progress in the trade agreement as fundamental differences remain. Even though the US market remains the most robust equity market from a global perspective, as complex existing issues remain, alongside with the weakening global economy at hand, we do not expect the US markets to sky rocket, investors should continue to stay cautious when investing.

Source: Bloomberg, The Conference Board, Harris Fraser, Data as of: 30-9-2019

United States

One of the focus in the market this week is the commencement of the US earnings season. Mixed performance is observed for big Wall Street names, JP Morgan’s Q3 net profit is up 8% year-on-year beating expectations; Citi’s earnings also bested market estimates. However, Goldman Sachs' earnings per share fell sharply by 24%, missing the mark by quite a margin; Q3 profit for Wells Fargo also dropped 26% YoY. Among the 66 S&P 500 constituents which have already announced earnings, about 83% recorded an earnings beat, which is outstanding considering the macro environment. Over the past 5 days ending Thursday, all three major US stock indexes rose more than 2%. In terms of economic outlook, after the IMF lowered its forecast for the 2019 global economic growth to a 10-year low, the Beige Book released by the US Federal Reserve also lowered its economic outlook moderately. The US retail sales falling for the first time in seven months also worried markets. Investors should continue to pay close attention to corporate earnings.

Europe

In Europe,  Brexit matters continue to take the centre stage, as the whole Brexit process taken a dramatic turn. The EU and the UK announced on Thursday that they have reached a Brexit agreement. After the announcement, the pound rose alongside the European stock market, GBP/USD even closed in the 1.30 level on Thursday. Over the past 5 days ending Thursday, the general European stock markets went positive. Apart from the dampening effect on UK stocks due to a strong pound, the German DAX rose 4% and the French CAC rose nearly 2%. However, the deal is yet to complete, the Northern Irish Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) has expressed that they will not accept the new deal, and the British Parliament will vote on the deal this Saturday. The short-term volatility of the Pound Exchange is expected to be very high.

China

On Friday, mainland China released a number of important economic data on economic growth. While Chinese Q3 GDP growth continued the slide to a new low in 27 years, slowing down to 6% YoY, industrial production growth accelerated, and retail sales remained stable. Premier Li Keqiang has set the economic growth target for this year at 6% to 6.5% in the “Report on the Work of the Government”. As for Sino-US relations, both sides have reached a consensus on the outline of the first phase of the trade agreement. It was reported that China and the US might conduct further negotiations as early as the end of October, they might even formally sign the agreement at the APEC summit in November. The market will continue to follow the progress of the trade negotiations closely.

• Recent activities include : Attend The Private Wealth Asia Forum, Harris Fraser Hong Kong Property Market Outlook and Investment Strategy Seminar and Press Conference, Taiwan Immigration Seminar etc.
• Media include : SCMP、imoney、AAStocks、TVB、HKEJ、MingPao、HKET、Metro Broadcast、Commercial Radio Hong Kong etc (including but not limited to the above)
• Publishing on newspapers, magazines and online sections : “Capital”, “SingTao Newspaper”, “Sing Tao Investment Weekly”, “Headlines News” , “ET Net”, “OrangeNews”, “Quamnet” and online videos collaborated by Mason Securities limited and Harris Fraser Group.

United States

US stocks are still in a correction period, but the three major indices recorded a rise over the past 5 days ending Thursday. The market is focusing on if there are any breakthroughs in the latest round of Sino-US trade talks. Representatives on both sides have showed a cautiously optimistic attitude towards reaching a partial agreement, providing support to the equity markets. The US Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell is another point of focus, as he mentioned that the Fed would resume expanding its balance sheet soon, driving the short-term US Treasury bond prices up, the announcement of the plan also improved equity market sentiment. The US will release the economic Beige Book and September retail sales data next week.

Europe

Trade worries have eased and European stock markets have performed relatively better than global stocks recently. Over the past 5 days ending Thursday, both the French CAC and German DAX recorded cumulative gains of over 2%, while the FTSE 100 also recorded a 1.54% rise. Earlier, the European Central Bank (ECB) announced after the September meeting that it would restart quantitative easing in November. The ECB minutes released last week showed that ECB officials have differing opinions over the composition of the monetary stimulus, about 30% of the 25 members of the management committee actually opposed to the restart of quantitative easing. On the other hand, the Brexit fiasco, which is about to reach the deadline, has took a dramatic turn. The British and Irish leaders issued a statement after the talks, claiming that they have found a way to reach a potential agreement, driving the GBP/USD up sharply from about 1.22 to a level above 1.24.

China

The Chinese stock market resumed on Tuesday after the long holiday, and recorded a good performance. Both the CSI 300, SSE Composite and SZSE Component Indices rose for four consecutive days. On the contrary, the performance of HSI was mixed, with the best performance recorded on Friday. This week, the market has been focusing on the Sino-US economic and trade talks, yet there were still rumors on the eve of the talks. It was reported that the White House is looking into restricting government pension funds from investing in Chinese stocks. However, after the conclusion of the first day of trade talks, both representatives hinted that they were cautiously optimistic on reaching an agreement, and the US President Donald Trump also remarked that the talks went smoothly. The news drove the overall Asian stock market up on Friday. Next week, China will release a number of important economic data, including Q3 GDP, CPI, Fixed Asset Investment, Industrial Production, Retail Sales etc.

Recent activities include : Attend The Private Wealth Asia Forum, Harris Fraser Hong Kong Property Market Outlook and Investment Strategy Seminar and Press Conference, Taiwan Immigration Seminar etc.

Media include :  SCMP、imoney、AAStocks、TVB、HKEJ、MingPao、HKET、Metro Broadcast、Commercial Radio Hong Kong etc (including but not limited to the above)

Publishing on newspapers, magazines and online sections  : “Capital”, “SingTao Newspaper”, “Sing Tao Investment Weekly”, “Headlines News”  , “ET Net”, “OrangeNews”, “Quamnet” and online videos collaborated by Mason Securities limited and Harris Fraser Group.

United States

US economic data unexpectedly weakened. NASDAQ fell nearly 2% over the past 5 days ending Thursday, while S&P 500 and the Dow fell more than 2%. The US ISM manufacturing PMI released this week surprisingly fell to a 10-year low. In addition, the World Trade Organization lowered its global growth forecast for this year and the next, worsening market sentiment and causing US equities to fall sharply for two consecutive days over the week. The US ISM non-manufacturing PMI released afterwards also brought bad news, falling to the lowest level in three years. The weak economic data drove market's expectation of two Fed rates cuts in 2019 up, driving the 10-year US bond yield back down to the 1.52% level. The market will focus on the non-farm payroll figures released later tonight.

Europe

The WTO authorized the United States to impose tariffs on up to $7.5 billion of EU products, goods such as aircraft will face up to a 10%-25% tariff. The French finance minister said that the EU will make a firm response over the matter. The incident worsened market confidence, causing large drops in European equities on Tuesday and Wednesday. Over the past 5 days ending Thursday, the FTSE 100 and CAC fell more than 3%, while the DAX also dropped more than 2%. The UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson requested the EU to make concessions on Brexit, claiming that the UK is well prepared for a case of “No Deal Brexit”. The European Parliament on the other hand is concerned about the details of UK's Brexit plan. It was reported that even if the EU rejects Johnson’s proposal, the UK administration still has a backup plan. As the Brexit deadline approaches, market uncertainty rose, and GBP/USD is fluctuating between 1.22 and 1.44.

China

Due to the National Day holiday in China, the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets will be closed from Tuesday until next Tuesday, Hong Kong markets was closed on the National Day. Due to drop offs in international markets, Hong Kong equities performed poorly this week, but still outperformed the global markets. The Hang Seng Index fell 0.85% in the week while the H-Share Index fell 0.64%. In terms of economic data, Hong Kong retail sales in August recorded the largest year-on-year decline ever. As for the Sino-US trade relations, US soybean exports rebounded to the highest level in seven months as the tension between the two sides eased temporarily. On the week ending September 26, total sales increased from 1.04 million tons to 2.08 million tons week-on-week. China will release figures on foreign exchange reserves and Caixin Services PMI next week.

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US

As Chinese trade negotiators cancelled the US farm visit last week, stock markets tumbled as the prospects of an early trade deal diminish. President Trump later on reassures the market, claiming that a deal to end the trade war “could happen sooner than you think” on Wednesday, he also mentioned reaching an early trade agreement with Japan on agricultural products, relieving the tensions built up and providing support to the market. All 3 major indices recorded a slight drop of 0.75-1.86% over the past 5 days ending on Thursday. Economic figures released over the week came as a surprise. While Manufacturing PMI and Q2 Core PCE (QoQ) posted surprisingly strong figures, the more important Services PMI and Consumer Confidence Index both missed expectations, which highlights possible economic downturn in Q3 2019. Durable Goods, August Core PCE and University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment figures will be released later tonight, while ISM Employment & Manufacturing, Unemployment, and Non-farm Payroll figures will be released next week. From the figures, investors will be able to catch a better glimpse of the US economic health.

Europe

As of Thursday, most European markets has recorded a drop with STOXX 600 dropping 0.76% over the past 5 days. As the Supreme Court ruled that the prorogation of the parliament was unlawful, MPs resumed work on Wednesday amongst Brexit chaos. While EU leaders agree there is likely to be another extension to the Brexit deadline, the defiant UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson insists on leaving the EU on 31 October “no matter what”. Investors should continue to keep an eye on the further development as the deadline closes in. European economic figures were terrible, with all major PMI figures missing expectations. In particular, Markit Germany Manufacturing PMI even fell to 41.4, which is the lowest point ever since mid-2009. Poor economic figures due to global political uncertainty will likely plague the markets in the coming months as the trade war and Brexit continues. Next week the market will be mainly focusing on European retail, PMI, and CPI figures, plus UK PMI and GDP figures.

China

Chinese markets recorded a dip over the week ending on Friday, with drops ranging from 1.82-3.77% across major indices. Industrial profits dropped by 2% YoY in August, mainly due to a 3.2% drop in the manufacturing sector, combining that with the negative PPI figures and we could catch a glimpse of the trade war effects building up. China’s Foreign Minister Wang Yi mentioned that China is willing to increase the purchase of US goods, hoping both sides can reach a trade deal soon, echoing Trump’s earlier remarks. With positive news building up in the background, we could expect Chinese markets to react positively, especially as the National Day closes in, the government is expected to provide better support to the markets. Just right before China enters the weeklong holiday, Caixin PMI data is scheduled to release on Monday, which could provide further insight into the manufacturing sector health.

Golfer Tiger Woods, champion chess player Bobby Fischer, composer Mozart – these are some of the greatest achievers in their respective fields, and at a very young age. Was their success down to inborn talent or did they put in the hours to get to the top?

It’s an ongoing debate. There is one side that favours the idea that people can be born with an aptitude for a certain pursuit while other people, however much effort they put in, will never reach the same dizzying heights of mastery. The other side of the argument believes that it is all down to the effort and hours that are put in. While Tiger Woods can be seen as a child prodigy, born with a gift for golf – it is also true that he had a golf club put in his hand before he even turned two years old, and at a time when his peers had barely begun hitting balls down the green, Woods had already won numerous tournaments and achieved a huge number of firsts in the field. Was he just ahead of the game, or born gifted?

In the book Outliers: The Story of Success, author Malcolm Gladwell argues that the key to success is putting in the hours – that anyone can put in 10,000 hours and master a skill. Research has shown that even if someone were perhaps born with a propensity for chess, maths, music or sport, someone else who puts in the same number of hours can overcome any differences in ability and mastery over time. In other words, any perceived inborn ‘talent’ will even out.

Other studies have shown, however, that perhaps there is an argument for being born with a certain ‘talent’, or with brains that are already inclined towards a certain area which when nurtured can result in mastery. It is not only physical attributes that are inherited, but an aptitude for maths, science, sport of music may be in your DNA. Creativity for example, a trait that can be particularly important in areas such as music and the arts, can be identified in the brain; some people seem to have genetics that make a brain more inclined towards creative thinking. This doesn’t necessarily mean that others can’t be similarly creative, but that it perhaps comes more naturally to those born that way.

In 2013 a study by researchers from the University of Helsinki found that one particular cluster of genes related to musical creativity belongs to a gene family known to be involved in the plasticity of the brain. Greater plasticity allows the brain to reorganise itself by breaking down and forming new connections and creativity is related to the ability of the brain to form large-scale networks and develop pathways between different areas.

If genes do dictate an inborn talent or gift, wouldn’t it be useful to know from an early age that you might have an aptitude for music so that you could pursue it? Or perhaps if you knew that your children were tone deaf from early on, it would save you – and them – time, money and effort in not pushing them to pursue something that they may never succeed in, will likely not enjoy and that could potentially destroy their self-confidence?

There’s an argument, of course, for allowing children to develop an understanding of these things by themselves. If people believe they are inherently suited – or not suited – to something, then that may change the way they approach things in life. It may remove incentive for them to try, because they don’t think they have a natural aptitude for it. Conversely, it may mean they don’t put in the effort required, and waste a perceived ‘talent’ as they believe they are naturally gifted and don’t need to try. And as research has shown that practice, dedication and effort can make you almost as good – if not as good – as those purportedly born with a gift or talent, this is important.

In a quest to give your children a leg up, genetic tests can provide useful information and allow you to tailor things to your children if they show an aptitude for certain activities, helping to allocate time and resources a little more thoughtfully. We mustn’t oversimplify the relationship between genes and a proclivity for certain things, but if our brains or genes are sometimes wired in such a way, wouldn’t it be nice to know and to nurture what we are born with?

Harris Fraser provides access to the Inborn Talent Genetic Discovery Test in partnership with Pangenia Group. This comprehensive testing package includes 48 different DNA tests covering skillsets such as language learning, reading and logical thinking, physical assessments related to muscle power and endurance, mental power including long- and short-term memory, creativity and persistence.

Allergies among children are on the rise. In Australia, for example, one in the ten children has some kind of allergy, while in the US there are nearly six million children living with allergies. In the UK, food allergies affect 7 percent of children, while in Hong Kong 40 percent of children has some kind of allergy.

An allergy is a reaction of the immune system when it comes into contact with an allergen. This allergen can be anything from food to dust, pollen or even an insect sting. The body’s reaction to this perceived threat can manifest in a number of ways, from a rash, a running nose or watering eyes, to the more severe than can include vomiting, diarrhoea or even difficulty breathing due to the swelling of the tongue or throat. In the case of an allergy, these symptoms usually appear within a couple of hours of contact with the allergen. Whatever the seriousness of the reaction, it’s worth knowing what triggers such a response in your child. Most are hereditary; some appear out of the blue; all have a huge impact on both the life of a child and that of their parents.

Allergy testing is straightforward and has a number of benefits. Here are just a few reasons why today, more than ever before, it may be prudent that your child takes one.

1. Allergies can run in the family

Children whose relatives suffer from allergies, as well as asthma, eczema and hayfever, are at an increased risk of developing the same allergies, particularly if either – or both – of a child’s parents have the allergy. It’s best to know early on whether your child is subject to the same allergies and an allergy test can provide this information.

2. As many as one in 10 children suffers from an allergy

The figures are high – and seem to be increasing. No one knows why this is, but the rise has been attributed to deteriorating air quality, changes in diets and increased hygiene that means children are less exposed to the microbes that help build a healthy immune system.

The most common allergies among children are to peanuts, milk, eggs, tree nuts, wheat, soy, fish and shellfish. Some of these – such as soy, milk, eggs and wheat – will usually be outgrown and by the time a child reaches the age of five they will likely be free from such allergies and the accompanying reaction. However, allergies to peanuts, shellfish, fish and tree nuts often persist and are likely to be lifelong. It is therefore worth gaining an understanding of such an allergy early on and learning how to live with it safely.

3. A seemingly common ailment could be something more serious

Children often have the sniffles or a runny nose, perhaps a tummy ache or bouts of sneezing, but these may not simply be a common cold or other ailment. Allergic reactions can manifest in manifold ways and such symptoms could signify anything from a pet allergy to a pollen or dust allergy to a mild allergy to a particular food. If you are regularly seeing these kind of symptoms – which also include coughs, a stuffy nose, headaches, puffy or itchy eyes – particularly out of the typical cold or flu season, an allergy test could shed light on their cause.

4. Allergies can be life-threatening

Some allergies result in minor discomfort or symptoms that can be handled, however others can be far more serious with high risk levels as dangerous as breathing difficulties and anaphylactic shock. Knowing what could cause such a reaction means you can take steps to avoid such things.

5. Identification can improve wellbeing

The response of the immune system to an allergen can be uncomfortable. None of the symptoms are pleasant, even if they are minor, and these can adversely affect your children and their performance. Knowing what can trigger a reaction in your child and how to avoid that can significantly improve their wellbeing ­– and yours.

6. Identification without a blood test is challenging

The alternative to allergy testing is for a patient to eat increased amounts of a suspected allergenic food under medical supervision. Skin tests are also an option where extracts of a suspected food are used in the pricking of skin to check for a reaction. Measuring Immunoglobulin E (IgE) in the blood is the most direct allergy test. IgE antibodies are made by the immune system to protect the body from bacteria, viruses, and allergens. They are normally found in small amounts in the blood, but higher amounts can be a sign that the body overreacts to allergens. An IgE test can confirm whether a discomfort is caused by allergy so exposure to such allergens can be prevented.

7. Confirmation and peace of mind

We cannot ensure our children’s safety if we cannot confirm their allergens. There is no cure but with confirmed knowledge of allergens comes better preparation to manage the condition and avoid the offending foods and exposure to them.  

Harris Fraser provides access to Allergy (IgE) Tests in partnership with Pangenia Group. This comprehensive allergy testing package identifies more than 20 types of respiratory allergens and 60 types of food allergen.

Harris Fraser partners with Pangenia to offer a range of parenting and childcare solutions, from physical and mental health screening to inborn talent genetic discovery and allergy tests. To find out which are best for you and your children, we spoke to Pangenia to discover why each test is important, what’s involved, when they should be done and who they are best suited to.

Why do you think there has been an increase in the popularity and prevalence of childcare solutions that look at genetics?

Genetic tests provide parents with a wealth of great information about their child. This information can guide parents, allowing them to decode their children’s DNA for a healthier, better future, choosing the right extracurricular activities for their children and preparing for any allergies, and diseases that may arise.

Why is the Mygenia Physical and Mental Health screening important and what can it help to detect?

The Mygenia kids panel detects a variety of mental and physical health-related diseases, including ADHD, autism, Asperger’s syndrome, congenital heart defects, leukemia, epilepsy, cystic fibrosis, galactosemia, haemophilia, and Fragile X syndrome.

It can be difficult to know when children have some kind of mental or physical disease prior to symptoms appearing and this means opportunities for taking preventative action can be missed. Once the parents know the health condition of their children, they shall seek professional help for appropriate treatment.

What does the screening involve and when should children get it done?

Children should do this screening as early as possible, because the earlier we can detect any health conditions and provide treatment, the more effective it will be.

Who is this test best suited to or who will benefit most from taking this test?

If a child has a family history of any of the diseases that this screening tests for, there will be a higher chance of the child inheriting that disease, so we would particularly recommend the Mygenia panel for them.

What are the benefits to both children and their parents in taking the Inborn Talent Genetic Discovery Test?

When it comes to parenting, we are always looking for a first-mover advantage – the earlier you can plan for your children, the greater potential they have of competing with their peers. However, there are countless courses, programmes and activities for us to choose from, and we do not always know which ones are best for our children. On top of that, we have limited resources, and our children have limited time and energy to attend such courses. Genetic testing can give us insights into a child’s abilities, character and physical aptitude.

What information can this test provide?

The test is divided into three categories:

• Character, including attention, social ability, independence, short-term memory, responsibility, creativity, reward dependence, grit, stress, tendency towards melancholy, introverted behaviour, sensitivity, curiosity, enterprising nature, empathy, self-protection, precociousness and self-reflection
• Physique, including calcium absorption, iron absorption, blood sugar control, folic acid metabolism, hereditary allergies, eczema and other skin issues, weight loss, high-fat food response, muscle burst, muscle endurance, exercise versus weight loss, exercise versus blood sugar control, post-exercise restorative damage, tooth development, astigmatism, skin pigmentation, myopia, lactose tolerance, sweetness preference, vitamin absorption
• Talent, including aptitude for languages, maths, reading, learning, logical thinking, dance and music.

When is the best time for a child to take this test?

The better we understand a child’s talent, the better we can be prepare for their education and developing their interests so the earlier this test is carried out, the better we can prepare for our children’s futures.

Why are Delayed and Immediate Allergy Tests so important?

More than 40 per cent of children have allergies in Hong Kong and 60 per cent of its general population has asthma. A lot of people in Hong Kong claim to have nasal allergies, but not all of those have found out the cause of these allergies and symptoms will only worsen. By discovering the allergens that cause a reaction in someone, you can prevent their contact with these allergens, which is important because allergies are associated with the immune system and once the immune system is weakened, our body is more vulnerable to virus and bacteria.

What do each of these tests involve and is there anything parents should be aware of beforehand?

For the Immediate Allergy Test, 3ml of blood is needed for the test; this measures the levels of different igE antibodies and looks at including 20 types of respiratory allergens and 60 types of food allergens. For the Delayed Allergy Test, we take a few drops of blood from the fingertip, and measure the levels of different igG antibodies, which detect food intolerances. If a child has not eaten a specific food in the past 6 to 8 weeks, this test will not be able to detect if there is a delayed allergy reaction.   

When is the best time for a child to take this test?

For the Immediate Allergy Test, we recommend drawing blood only from children aged three years and older. For the Delayed Allergy Test, the test is relatively simple and can be taken once children start eating solid food.

By applying the wealth management model to the healthcare sector, Harris Fraser is able to provide healthcare management solutions for children and adults, including healthcare planning, critical illness solutions and services that take control of genetic inheritance. Our solutions are in partnership with Pangenia, a leading professional molecular diagnostics (MDx) group in Hong Kong backed by an elite group of biotech scientists and executives.