United States

The global epidemic situation remains severe, with the cumulative total cases exceeding 2.1 million. After a sharp rebound last week, the global stock market stayed in the ascending channel. The NASDAQ index in particular, representing the tech sector, led the market and rose significantly, gaining about 5.46% over the past 5 trading days ending Thursday, the Dow and the S&P 500 index also rose about 0.4% and 1.8% respectively over the same period. US President Trump instructed the White House to suspend funding to WHO, he also claimed some parts of the United States has passed the peak of the outbreak, announcing the decision to gradually lift restrictions on economic activities. However, on the other side of the planet, Japan Prime Minister Shinzo Abe announced a state of emergency until this year's May 6th. In terms of economic data, the latest initial jobless claims figure was 5.25 million, totaling over 22 million in the past four weeks. The Federal Reserve’s Economic Beige Book also showed that the overall US economy has contracted sharply, and the situation may further worsen in April. The chairman of the US Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond even claimed that the April unemployment figure in the United States may spike to 15%. In the crude oil market, Saudi Arabia said the country is open to future cuts, but OPEC estimates that crude oil demand will fall to its lowest level in 30 years, dropping below 20 million barrels per day. Even if all parties abide by the pledge to cut production accordingly, the daily production is still higher than the demand by around 3.7 million barrels. Next week, the US manufacturing PMI figures and Michigan market confidence index will be released.

Europe

Compared to the global equities, European stocks underperformed. Over the past 5 days ending Thursday, the UK, French and German stock indexes fell between 0.5% - 2.0%. As the epidemic in Europe and the United States showed gradual improvement, numerous European governments are formulating plans for business resumption. However, the UK government indicated that they would extend the lockdown measures for at least three additional weeks, the French government also intended to extend the epidemic measures for four more weeks. Regarding the European economy in tatters due to the epidemic, the European Central Bank (ECB) President Lagarde said that the ECB will take "every necessary measures” to support the economy, and the Bank is evaluating further increasing euro swaps quotas. In terms of fiscal policy, EU leaders are looking into ways to increase the budget in order to speed up the economic recovery process, details will be discussed on the upcoming call. Next week, the we will see more data from the region for manufacturing PMIs and ZEW survey expectations.

China

The Chinese and Hong Kong stock markets were steady this week, the CSI 300 index rose 2.4% in a week; while the Hang Seng Index stayed flat. Facing downward economic pressure, the Chinese government stepped up its countercyclical efforts, including the People's Bank of China’s (PBoC) lowering the MLF interest rate by 20 basis points to a record low. As for economic data, China’s first-quarter GDP economy recorded a contraction of -6.8% year-on-year, which is the first of its kind since the 1970s economic reforms. The PBoC stated that it will redirect credit facilities via targeted RRR cuts and re-financing efforts to support the expansion in the real economy, especially small and micro enterprises. Loan Prime Rate (LPR) will be announced next week, market expects the 1-year interest rate to lower by 20 basis points to 3.85%.

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